Please advise! Who will win in the Alberta referendum?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

What is your prediction for the Alberta referendum next Monday?

signed,

Sept

Dear Sep,

Dr. Steve is not a fan of referendums. The questions are specific, but the answers tend to be general. The question might be “Do you want a new public swimming pool?” and one guy says “No” because his neighbor’s noisy dog ​​has kept him awake all night and he wants to let it out somewhere.

But say that for the Alberta referendum: the main issue is big enough that it supersedes minor concerns. Which does not mean that everyone will be clear and rational about it. Just what the people vote for, the voters or the government cannot be fully understood.

It just so happens that Dr. Steve was in Alberta last week. It was the Edmonton area, not exactly a separatist hotbed — the only campaign sign he saw was a “Better Together” billboard near the Edmonton airport. But Dr. Steve had an interesting conversation with a taxi driver on the long trip to town. (Edmonton is a city that desperately needs an airport train. And it’s not like they need tunnels. How about a referendum on that?)

This driver appears to have turned his cab into a mobile voting operation. “Seventy percent of my passengers will choose to stay,” he said confidently. “They are not happy about the referendum.”

And the rest? “The others,” he said, “are very excited to have US passports.”

US passports? Come again? Isn’t secession about an independent Alberta? “No, no, I don’t think so,” said the driver. “They expect the United States to participate”

Well, there it is. Say what they could create about a strong, independent Alberta, this informal taxi tally suggests that the separatist movement is really MAGA North.

Dr. Steve practiced his shocked face in the rearview mirror, but really, this is about as surprising as dental bills after Halloween. To say that the separatists have played footy with the Trump administration is to seriously understate the case. Is there such a thing as third-base footsie? Only footsie fans? XXX feet?

Alberta Above all The public even sent emissaries to Washington offering goodies in exchange for support, goodies that reportedly included a cut of Alberta’s oil royalties, access to precious metals and a transportation right across the province. Someone had told them that Colonel Sanders didn’t usually make deals with chickens. The would-be separatists could also have coated themselves with 11 different herbs and spices.

The Alberta Bros seem to have something in common with the MAGA crew – they don’t risk being called the best and the brightest. They’re basically a gaggle of Pete Hegseths, or whatever the collective noun for Hegseths is. A half-joke of Hegseths? Hammer-sack of Hegseths? Brain-dead of Hegseths? A foul, steaming pile of Hegseths?

The Alberta separatists, however, have attracted some impressive boosters. Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk are big fans. Dunkin’ Donuts can’t get celebrity endorsements like that. But this is nothing new for Putin. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently said that Russia also interfered in the Brexit referendum. Putin likes to mess with democracy. He probably continues to support Guillermo Dancing with the stars.

With or without Russian interference, referendums often have unpredictable results. This divisive issue seems to separate Premier Danielle Smith from her political base. The Venn diagram of separatists and United Conservative Party supporters resembles an obese rat stuck in a sewer pipe.

Not every UCP voter is a separatist, but almost every separatist is – or was – UCP. Smith may have hoped to placate her party base by allowing the referendum, but by campaigning against separation she managed to piss off just about everyone. Smith the arsonist is now posing as a fireman. But the Alberta premier may have started a fire with a serious backdraft.