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For the minority of Labor MPs who are in favor of more drilling in the North Sea, the battle may have been won, but the war is far from over.
No one was surprised on Wednesday when Energy Secretary Miatta Fanhbulleh announced she would allow drilling to begin at the Jackdaw gas field off the coast of Aberdeen.
It means gas from the field will be used to heat British homes this winter, although the minister has admitted that her decision will not bring bills down and will only create an additional 27 jobs.
The big question now is whether Fahnbulleh – who is considered to be Labour’s environmental wing – will follow through by giving the go-ahead to extract oil from the Rosebank site near the Shetland Islands.
Both projects were approved by the Conservative government in 2022, before being shelved two years later following legal challenges over their environmental impact.
According to The Guardian, the minister is considering blocking Rosebank, although no final decision has been made.
“One is a gas field that caters to the domestic market, while the other is an oil field that is mainly for export,” Fahnbulleh told the newspaper as she outlined the differences between the two sites.
“It is true that we assess each application in its own right, and it is absolutely critical that the decision is consistent with our climate commitments, our carbon budgets and the final destination that we must get with the energy transition.”
Whatever she decides to do, it is clear that Fanhbulleh will end up angering a significant number of Labor MPs.
“Rosebank is the big one,” said one MP, who hopes the energy secretary will give it the thumbs down.
“It was always very difficult to see Jackdaw being rejected, and there would have been absolute uproar from the ‘Drill Baby Drill’ MPs if she had.
“I think people know this is potentially a very big first test for Andy Burnham and will answer the question of whether it’s the soft left or the unions calling the shots.
“This question has been unanswered for several months, but it will be answered in the coming weeks.”
Two of the country’s biggest unions, the GMB and Unite, are firmly in the pro-Rosebank camp.
Welcoming Jackdaw’s approval, GMB general secretary Gary Smith said: “This positive direction of travel must continue apace.
“GMB will continue to push for further, essential measures that will increase our domestic energy capacity, such as the granting of permission for Rosebank.”
And speaking in March, Unite boss Sharon Graham said: “Blocking oil and gas production in the North Sea, especially now, is simply an act of monumental political self-harm.
“The domestic gas from Jackdaw and oil from Rosebank are essential for jobs and for energy security. We cannot let go of one rope before we have another.”
One Labor MP was in his assessment of those colleagues who think that Rosebank should be blocked: “Some of them resist.don’t know a wind farm or an oil rig when it hit them on the head.
Another pro-Rosebank backbencher told HuffPost UK: “I want us to move away from fossil fuels but recognize that can’t happen overnight.
“I would prefer that we produce our own oil instead of importing it from the US or the Middle East.”
“Idealism is great, but reality is different.”
– Labor MP
An MP acknowledged that “my 20-year-old self would not agree with me now, but you have to choose between the world as we would like it and the world as it is”.
He added: “The reality of the world we live in is that there are wars in the Middle East and there is a war in Ukraine that will affect our supply and our energy security, so you have to make the hard decision.
“I know what Miatta’s instincts will be, but I hope she makes the realistic decision, for the workforce as much as anything. Idealism is great, but reality is different.
With his first budget less than a week away, Chancellor John Healey may hope that the economic arguments for Rosebank, and the tax revenue they bring to the cash-strapped treasury, will prove convincing.
One minister said: “I’m for drilling. Tortured triangulation on Rosebank won’t cut it. John knows that.
“But it is increasingly clear that he is possibly the weakest chancellor in Whitehall since Nadhim Zahawi, and that it will be Lou Haigh, Miatta and Ed Miliband who will ultimately decide whether Rosebank moves on.”
An anti-drill backbencher said the decision Fahnbulleh takes will have far-reaching consequences.
“Apart from Scottish MPs, it’s hard to find anyone in the PLP who actually makes the case for drilling,” the MP said. “I don’t think there is a massive pro-Rosebank caucus.
“This weekend will be important as MPs go back to their constituencies and find out where their constituents stand after the Jackdaw announcement.
“It is very complicated for us, and risks breaking the progressive coalition that Andy has managed since he became prime minister.
“It could turn off a lot of people who are tempted to vote for us, and risk giving the Greens a get out of jail free card after the Zionism stuff.
“It would be different if we could say it will definitely lower bills, but we can’t. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on it being blocked.”
In the three months since he replaced Keir Starmer as PM, Burnham has managed to unite a fractious parliamentary Labor party.
The Rosebank decision, which is expected before the end of the year, threatens to expose once again the deep divisions between MPs that have never really gone away.
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