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Oil and gas prices rose on Monday after an “energy truce” announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday failed to gain traction.
Brent crude jumped 2% to nearly $108 a barrel and U.S. crude rose more than 2% to around $94. Meanwhile, diesel futures have completely erased a small decline they saw last week.
Just weeks after the November 3rd midterm elections, price pressures are on the rise. Republicans face a steep climb to maintain their majorities in Congress, and voters across the country are citing high gas prices as a key issue influencing their votes.
The average national price of diesel fuel Monday was $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than it was at the beginning of the year, according to AAA data.
The rising prices on Monday came less than 24 hours after Trump declared that a ceasefire had been agreed.
“Effective immediately, there is an energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Don’t break it!” Trump wrote about Truth Social.
Shortly after the post of the president, Russia renewed strikes against Ukrainian energy assets.
Pressed by reporters on Monday about why neither the Kremlin nor Kiev had firmly committed to his ceasefire, Trump indicated that he knew when he made the announcement on Sunday that he did not yet have a commitment from either side.
“They agreed, do you know why? Because I said ‘you agreed,'” Trump told reporters at the White House. As for Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens.”
Asked if he was aware that Russia had already violated the ceasefire that Trump had announced, the president replied: “I’m not sure about that,” before claiming that there were “violations on both sides.”
Armistice déjà vu
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine learned about Trump’s ceasefire from media reports and received no advance warning. He reiterated his position that Ukraine would be open to an agreement not to target enemy energy infrastructure as long as Moscow also agreed.
In the meantime, Russia continued with “hover strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said on Monday, noting that a power plant in Kharkiv was recently attacked.
“Ukraine has proposed many de-escalation steps. Putin had an answer to all of them – ‘no,'” Zelenskyy said, using the Russian word for “no.”
The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied agreeing to an agreement on Monday.
Trump’s announcement on Sunday closely mirrored a similar post he made in September, when he announced that “Ukraine has agreed not to meet Russian energy targets. Russia has agreed to do too!”
Even there, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s participation depended on Russia’s agreement, which never came. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian strikes on the other’s energy assets slowed down in September.
Trump’s deal with Putin
The dubious ceasefire that Trump declared over the weekend followed a surprise announcement Friday in which the president said Russia would supply millions of barrels of diesel “to the American and global marketplace.”
The announcement came after a phone call on Friday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which lasted for over an hour.
Trump said the deal with Putin would “directly deliver over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace.” That would translate into about 2.25 million barrels of diesel, or less diesel than the United States uses in just one day.
Further details and logistics of the Russian plan were announced on Monday.
In addition to the Russia deal, Trump has pressured G7 allies to release more diesel fuel supplies in recent days and lifted domestic restrictions on an off-road variety of diesel.
To clear a legal path for the diesel deal, the Treasury Secretary announced a six-month suspension of fuel sanctions imposed on the Kremlin in 2022 for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, European allies and some US lawmakers were outraged by the deal and the US decision to unilaterally ease Russia sanctions.
Trump defended the deal on Monday, calling it “the right choice for the American people.”
Trump also said more diesel fuel would be made available “within a short period of time” if Russia’s refineries could produce it.
Questions about Russia’s capacity
However, the experts are very skeptical that there will be a significant resumption of Russian diesel exports in the near future.
Due to Ukrainian strikes deep in Russia, refiners producing oil, gas and diesel have suffered severe damage.
“Reported gasoline production has decreased by 20% compared to 2025 levels, while diesel production is estimated to have fallen by almost 30%, prompting the government to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies,” International Energy Agency analysts wrote in a September report.
For weeks, Trump has focused on the price of diesel fuel, which began as a result of the Iran war, which the United States and Israel launched in February.
In July, escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war began to add pressure to diesel prices.
When Ukrainian drones systematically targeted Russian energy assets, the Kremlin responded by restricting diesel exports to maintain its supply for domestic consumption.
Until then, Russia was one of the world’s top exporters of refined oil products, including diesel.
Russia said on Friday it would lift some of its export restrictions to accommodate the deal with Trump. But it was unclear how soon that would happen.
