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The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has again revised its projection for 2026 home sales, while monthly data shows that sales across Canada fell in September.
CREA previously expected home sales to increase slightly in 2026, but now expects 5.2 percent fewer homes to change hands this year compared to last. The adjustment follows similar downward revisions April in the July.
Oil prices have risen since the spring, which has had an impact on bond yields and thus fixed mortgage rates, which CREA says weighed on the market.
While every month activity increases slightly about the SummerCREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart again says rising oil costs and growing fear that the Bank of Canada will have Increase interest to combat inflation, it is expected that in the last months of the year, more potential home buyers will remain on the sidelines.
“We’ve been on this rollercoaster for two years now,” Cathcart said, referring to hurdles presented by U.S. tariffs and rising lending rates. “Now it’s the uncertainty, and I think a lot of people will be reluctant to jump in this fall because of that.”
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Real estate company Royal LePage says it hears the same message from potential home buyers. President and CEO Phil Soper says the fall housing market has proven softer than expected as potential buyers remain cautious about making such a massive purchase amid so much global uncertainty.
“The chaotic nature of the language coming out of Washington directly affects people’s willingness to make big financial decisions like buying a home,” Soper said.
September home sales slide
These economic factors were already showing weaker September sales figures, according to CREA.
Home sales for the month decreased 2.3 percent compared to August, and 7.7 percent compared to September last year.
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The number of newly listed properties also fell by 1.8 percent on a month-over-month basis. New supply has generally fallen since September 2025, according to CREA.
The average home price nationwide was $666,538, also down from a year ago, by 1.6 percent.
On a regional basis, Cathcart says markets in Vancouver and Toronto were particularly weak in September. But markets in the Prairies, Quebec and on the East Coast — which have long been hot — also began to cool.
“Now everybody has to take a breather, I think, until we find out what the interests are going to do next year,” Cathcart said.
Despite the lowering of the forecast, CREA predicts that home sales will increase next year. Based on an optimistic outlook where the Bank of Canada makes limited rate changes and borrowers get more certainty about loan rates, CREA predicts that home sales will increase by 4.4 percent in 2027.
