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Public approval for Prime Minister Mark Carney remains high at 65% for his handling of the US tariff dispute
The end of the summer brought more attention to Canada-US relations. We are in the middle of two provincial campaigns where the current premiers – Christine Fréchette in Quebec and David Eby in BC – have turned from domestic issues to tell voters they are steady hands to deal with President Donald Trump. The American president’s endless memes and statements did not make relations any easier.
Attention to tariffs has grown, with 75 percent of Canadians (up seven points since June) following news on the issue “very close” or “moderately close.” More than four in five Canadians (82 percent, unchanged) who consider the tariffs a threat to Canada. The perception of a possible military conflict with the United States dropped from 50 percent three months ago to 43 percent.
Opinions about what Trump might do soon did not vary. Canadians are still more likely to predict an extension of tariffs (38 per cent, up one point) than their withdrawal (31 per cent, unchanged). A majority of Canadians (58 percent, up three points) avoid buying goods made in the United States when a non-American alternative is available.
This survey was conducted as Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed expanding Canada’s relationship with the European Union (EU). The concept of “associate membership” is understood differently, even within EU circles. More than three in four Canadians (77 percent, up one point) want to improve trade with the EU.
More than half of Canadians (53 percent, up three points) would favor starting a formal process for Canada to join the EU. This is the highest level recorded since we started asking the question in March 2025. Canadians aged 55 and over – who strongly supported the Liberal Party in last year’s federal election – are slightly more likely to explore Canada’s EU membership process (54 per cent) than those aged 35 to 54 (50 per cent).
At this point, Canada joining the EU is attractive to 64 percent of Canadians who supported the Liberal Party in 2025, as well as 60 percent of those who supported the New Democratic Party (NDP). Support falls to 42 percent among Conservative Party voters.
The trade dispute helped Carney establish an emotional connection with Canadians. Almost two-thirds (65 percent, up five points) approve of his performance with US tariffs. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre stands at 41 percent (up one point). Only 39 percent of Canadians (down three points) believe the issue would have been better handled if the Conservatives had won last year’s federal election, while nearly half (47 percent, unchanged) disagree.
Just over half of Canadians (51 per cent, up five points) believe their premier is managing the tariff dispute effectively, while 35 per cent (up two points) feel the same way about their provincial opposition leader.
In the four most popular provinces, the numbers are worth a closer look. Alberta’s Danielle Smith – ahead of a referendum on sovereignty next month – maintains a 32 per cent approval rating on tariffs. Favorable opinions are higher for Fréchette in Quebec (50 percent), Doug Ford in Ontario (54 percent) and Eby in BC (56 percent).
Frechette and Eby try to recreate Carney’s success, but face different challenges. The election in Quebec outlines a divided National Assembly, with three parties – including Frechette’s own coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) – siding with the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois.
In BC, the snap election that looked like a slam dunk on Friday became a contested tip in 72 hours. Any data collected prior to the announcement of Lorne Doerkson as leader of the BC Conservatives is now worthless.
The survey shows that Canadians are still focused on tariffs. It is still too early to say whether the issue will affect the two provincial elections next month: one as planned, one not quite.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Methodology: The results are based on an online survey from 21-23. September 2026, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data were statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, sex and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
