Brazil Elections: Lula Faces a Younger Bolsonaro: NPR

RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil’s presidential election is a rematch of the country’s bitter 2022 contest – but with a twist. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is facing Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the man he narrowly defeated four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio, a 45-year-old senator, will bring his father’s political movement to the polls on Sunday. Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year sentence for planning a coup to reverse this loss. His son promised to apologize to him if elected.

The younger Bolsonaro says he is “a more moderate Bolsonaro” but has voiced few political differences from his father. He pledged to apologize to his father over the coup conviction, cast doubt on humans’ responsibility for climate change and supports making it easier for Brazilians to buy weapons.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential election. The result will determine whether Brazil stays with Lula’s left-wing government or Bolsonaro’s movement returns to the presidency.

The pieces extend far beyond the two families.

The next president is expected to nominate four of the 11 Supreme Court justices, giving the winner significant influence over the court for years to come.

The next president will also shape Brazil’s economy and environmental policy, its relationship with the United States and the future of its young democracy.

Here’s what you need to know about Brazil’s October 4 election.

The election could extend until the end of October

Polls suggest a close race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro among a field of presidential candidates. Federal and state legislative seats and state governorships are also open. If no candidate for president or governor receives more than 50% of the valid votes Sunday, the two candidates with the most votes will continue on October 25.

Brazil uses electronic voting machines and usually tallies the results within hours. By Sunday night, it will likely be clear who will advance to a runoff — and how strongly each candidate performed in the first round.

The Bolsonaro name has a lot of baggage

Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election to Lula by a narrow margin and then became the central figure in an effort to reject the result. He is now serving a sentence for plotting a coup to reverse that loss, a scheme that included a plan to kill Lula, according to police.

The younger Bolsonaro has made it clear that he intends to stand by his father. His promise to pardon Jair, if elected, turned the former president’s legal fate into a campaign issue — and raised broader questions about the consequences of a Bolsonaro return to power for Brazil’s democratic institutions.

Lula was jailed in 2018 on corruption and money laundering charges, but the Supreme Court overturned his convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds. The episode remains a point of contention in Brazilian politics. His supporters point to other parts of his record, including poverty reduction and efforts to protect the Amazon rainforest.

Both political camps inspire fiercely loyal supporters – and fierce opposition. Polarization has remained high since the political and economic crisis of the mid-2010s, after which, said Federal University of Paraná political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos, “it became very difficult for any president to reach the higher approval ratings of previous decades.”

House questions could shape the vote

For all the attention on the Bolsonaro family and the battle over Brazil’s political direction, voters are also focused on problems much closer to home.

Uncertainty is a top issue for voters. Bolsonaro supports a hard-line approach to fighting crime, which he has suggested includes joint work with the US military, while Lula has favored operations targeting gang financiers and expressed skepticism of outside countries influencing Brazil’s security policy.

Voters also worry about corruption. Media and police investigations in recent weeks have revealed alleged improper ties between a jailed ex-banker known for bribery and Supreme Court justices and other top politicians. Bolsonaro himself negotiated a transfer of money from the banker and is being investigated for potential money laundering, which he denies.

And voters are worried about Brazil’s economy. Lula’s grip on public spending helped drive economic growth early in his administration, but growth has since slowed.

Bolsonaro argues that Brazil’s high national debt is holding back the economy and a top campaign adviser has pledged to reduce it by cutting spending in line with Argentina’s President Javier Milei.

Trump looms large over the vote

The United States has become an unusually visible presence in this year’s campaign. Rallies for Flávio have featured US flags, reflecting his promise to align more closely with the Trump administration.

A September cover of a leading Brazilian political magazine captured perceived US interest in the election with an image of a giant US spaceship hovering over a small Brazilian polling station.

The Bolsonaros have sought close ties with Trump for years.

Flávio’s brother, Eduardo, lives in the United States, where he urged Trump to act against Supreme Court justices who oversaw his father’s coup trial. Last year, Trump cited this lawsuit as justification for raising tariffs on Brazil by 40%.

Meanwhile, Lula pushed back against Trump’s pressure. He negotiated with the US president to reduce some tariffs while saying Brazil’s judicial independence was non-negotiable. Lula has also criticized US policy towards Venezuela, including the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.

In July, Lula publicly accused Washington of meddling in Brazil’s elections. Brazilian officials said the US officials planned to travel to Brazil to cast doubt on the reliability of Brazil’s voting machines. The State Department called the accusation “a baseless lie.”

This relationship could become especially consequential when the elections are close.

Yuri Sanches, head of political analysis at Brazilian polling and analysis firm AtlasIntel, says a narrow Lula victory could prompt Bolsonaro supporters to challenge the result.

“If Lula wins the election by a narrow margin, we will almost certainly have some Bolsonaro supporters questioning the results,” Sanches says.

“They can ask for help from Trump, from Rubio, from the United States, and say that the election was rigged, that the voting system, the electronic voting machines, are not reliable.”

A victory for Flávio would also give more political weight to the conservative movement, which has gained ground in recent years.

This is a sensitive moment for Brazilian democracy

Brazil emerged from the military dictatorship in 1985 and has since developed into one of the largest democracies in the world. According to V-Dem, an academic democracy research institute at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg, Brazil ranks 28th on its Liberal Democracy Index, compared to 51st for the United States. The index measures factors including checks on executive power.

Brazil 2025 Prosecution and conviction of Jair Bolsonaro over the coup plot marks a significant test of its democratic institutions. The promise of his son, Flávio, to forgive him has since raised questions about the durability of these institutions.

But the games extend beyond Brazil. As the largest economy in Latin America and the most populous country, Brazil belongs to the G20, a forum of major economies, and BRICS, a bloc of emerging powers.

The expanded BRICS countries account for almost half of the world’s population and about 39% of global GDP, measured by purchasing power parity.

The election will therefore not only be monitored for what it says about Brazil’s democracy, but also for what it could mean for the country’s role in global trade, climate policy, security and the balance between the United States and the greater Global South.