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Andy Burnham will be finished before he’s barely started when his removal of a key element of the triple lock ignites the ire of older Britons. The frightening truth for the Labor Prime Minister is that the nation’s older citizens are about twice as likely to vote as young Britons. As Jeremy Corbyn so fatally discovered, you can have legions of young people singing you songs in mass meetings, but lose the support of pensioners, and you lose the election.
The next general election cannot take place until August 2029, and every day until then the Conservatives and Reform will hammer home their message that pensioners are worse off under Labour, while they tear apart every detail of their welfare plans. Mr. Burnham will soon realize that it is easy to win cheers in a Liverpool conference room; it is much harder to regain the confidence of pensioners with clear memories of Rachel Reeves’ attack on their winter fuel allowance and her attempts to get more families to pay Inheritance Tax.
For his own survival, the Prime Minister should look at Ipsos’ research on the estimated turnout in the last general election. Less than four out of 10 citizens aged 18 to 24 voted (37%). This compares with 64% of those in the 55 to 64 age group approaching retirement age, and a whopping 73% of those over 65.
When he talks about a National Care Service, it immediately makes you think of the NHS – a service that offers care free in case of emergency and that does not present you with a bill for the use of a bed. But the government’s own briefing on Mr Burnham’s plans says the “service will not cover bed and board, for which existing means-tested council contributions will remain”. Families still have to navigate “payment agreements” to “help eligible people avoid selling their home during their lifetime to meet care costs”.
There is great disappointment when people know that when they die, much of the value of their home will disappear and the payments for care that have accrued during their frailty. People who have worked so hard to own a home want their children and grandchildren to benefit from their greatest asset.
Again, Mr. Burnham should look at the Ipsos turnout estimates and shudder. Only 37% of renters took part in the last general election, compared to six in 10 mortgage holders and 71% of landlords.
Older Britons can be grateful that Mr Burnham has put the issues of social care and pensions so high on the political agenda. The challenge for Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage now is to develop better plans.
The battle is on for the trust of our senior citizens, who proudly use their hard-won votes. This is democracy in action, and Mr. Burnham may rue the day he took his screwdriver to the triple lock.
