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A number of right-wing leaders have recently swept into power in Latin America, riding a wave of discontent with so-called governments and deepening concerns about security and a rising cost of living.
Until now, Brazil, the region’s largest nation, has been the exception. The left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, began his third unstable term in 2023. His predecessor and rival, Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted of staging a coup to prevent Mr. Lula from leaving office and was sentenced to 27 years, which he is currently serving under house arrest for health reasons.
Now Mr. Lula, driven by widespread perceptions of rising crime and economic hardship, faces a challenge from the former president’s son, Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator. Mr. Bolsonaro’s formidable performance in the first round of elections this month gave him the edge in a two-way contest.
The outcome will have a major effect on Brazil and its relations with the United States in particular. Here are some of the major issues at play.
Security
Mr. Bolsonaro has already said he would add Brazil to the Trump administration’s anti-cartel coalition, called the Shield of the Americas, and work with the United States to fight Brazilian gangs.
He suggested in social media posts last year that he would welcome US military intervention in Brazil, although he has denied this in recent interviews, saying cooperation would be limited to intelligence. But it was Mr. Bolsonaro who successfully lobbied Mr. Trump to designate two Brazilian gangs as terrorist groups.
Mr. Lula has opposed joining the coalition, warning that leaning too closely with the United States on security issues threatens the nation’s sovereignty.
Trade
The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Brazilian products in an unsuccessful pressure campaign to disrupt the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. Many of these tariffs were eventually dismantled, and Brazil’s economy has remained largely unscathed by President Trump’s tariff campaign.
Another term for Mr. Lula, however, would increase the risk of more economic conflicts with the United States, which could harm the Brazilian economy. Of course, Mr. Bolsonaro would not be immune to those problems; Mr. Trump has been known to raise tariffs against allies as well as adversaries.
The Trump administration has signaled an interest in importing Brazilian oil to combat disruptions related to the Iran war and the country’s rare earth minerals to reduce US dependence on China for these resources. Mr. Bolsonaro is expected to align Brazil more closely with the United States than Mr. Lula has on trade issues, but neither leader can afford to anger China, a major trading partner.
The election could also affect Brazil’s ability to negotiate trade with the United States as a bloc with other countries in the region.
“Brazil’s relations with its neighbors have been extremely challenging,” said Carolina Moehlecke, an assistant professor of international relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, a research institute. This was especially true for its neighbor, Argentina, she added, whose right-wing president is a close ally of Mr. Trump. Mr. Bolsonaro, she said, would have an easier time cooperating with fellow right-wing leaders in Latin America.
Domestic policy
If Mr. Bolsonaro makes the vote, conservatives fear a return to his father’s policies of allowing rapid deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, a trend largely reversed under President Lula. The younger Mr. Bolsonaro does not believe that climate change is caused by humans and has defended the opening of protected lands for mining and agriculture.
He also pledged to stem the nation’s rising debt. If he tries to achieve this through cuts in public spending, it could prove politically sensitive, said Ms. Moehlecke, especially when it comes to social policies with great popularity in Brazil. In the run-up to Sunday’s election, Mr. Lula had promised to increase tax payments.
Democracy
Mr. Lula framed the election as a test of the nation’s democracy and portrayed the Bolsonaros as a threat to democratic institutions. Ms. Moehlecke said it was likely that Mr. Bolsonaro would take the country in a more authoritarian direction, although his rhetoric is generally tamer than his father’s.
But if Mr. Bolsonaro wins, his party’s gains in the legislature could allow him to deliver on some of his most polarizing promises: amnesty for his father, apologies for riots that rocked Brazil’s halls of power after the last election, and a Senate more willing to try to remove the justices who convicted his father.
If Mr. Lula wins, he will most likely face significant checks against his power. Right-wing candidates, including four other members of the Bolsonaro family, have made significant strides in the nation’s legislative races.
